Simulate how markets react to breaking news
Scenario analysis usually means a spreadsheet of assumptions. MiroShark adds the crowd: drop in a headline, such as an emergency rate cut, an earnings miss, or a regulatory ruling, and grounded personas playing macro traders, crypto desks, and retail investors argue about it and trade on a prediction market tied to the outcome.
Traders see the posts in their prompt and posters see the prices in theirs, so narrative and price move each other the way they do in a real market. The report traces how the debate and the market moved together, round by round, with every claim pinned to a real post or trade from the run.
Who it is for
- Traders and analysts war-gaming a catalyst before it hits.
- Research desks exploring second-order reactions to a policy move.
- Investor relations teams preparing for how a release will be read.
- Students and researchers studying sentiment and price dynamics.
What you put in
One seed: a prompt, an article URL, or pasted text. Here is the example this page is built on. It opens prefilled in the run panel, ready to edit.
The Fed just cut rates by 50bps at an emergency meeting. Simulate how macro traders, crypto desks, and retail investors react hour by hour.
Will risk assets be broadly up 24h after the cut?
The cast it builds
MiroShark pulls the people, groups, and claims in your seed into a knowledge graph and casts grounded personas from it, each with its own beliefs, incentives, and posting style. For this seed, expect:
- Macro traders and rates desks
- Crypto desks and on-chain traders
- Retail investors
- Financial journalists and commentators
What you get back
Each run puts about 20 grounded AI agents (most runs use 10 to 40) through 10 rounds of a Twitter-like feed, a Reddit-like forum, and a Polymarket-style prediction market, then hands you:
- A cited markdown report written by a report agent that reads the simulated feed and market first, so every claim points back to a real post or trade from the run.
- Belief drift: how each group's stance moved round by round as the story developed.
- The top posts that carried the conversation on the simulated Twitter and Reddit.
- The prediction market trajectory: where the crowd priced the central question, and when it moved.
- A knowledge-graph view of the people, organizations, and claims MiroShark pulled from your seed.
- A public share page with a recap card that unfurls on X, Discord, Slack, and iMessage.
What to read for this job
- The prediction market path: how fast the crowd reprices, and where it settles.
- Which narrative wins the feed, and which round it takes over.
- Which groups diverge, for example retail against the desks.
- Agents that change position, and the post or price move behind it.
How to run it
- Open the run panel. Start from this example or open /sim with a blank prompt.
- Write the seed. A few tips for this job:
- Write the headline as it would break, with the key number in it.
- Name the participants and the window, such as hour by hour over the first day.
- Pin a resolvable market question, such as whether risk assets are up after 24 hours.
- Pin the market if you have a question. MiroShark writes a sharp, resolvable market question for you by default. Pin your own to track the exact outcome you care about.
- Pay and follow the run. A flat $1 USDC per run on Base, Solana, or Monad, with no subscription and no gas to hold. The report lands in about 10 minutes.
- Or run it from code. Agents and scripts can start the same run through the paid x402 API with no account or API key. See the x402 guide and the docs for how the pipeline works.
Questions
No. Outputs are simulated agent behavior, not guaranteed real-world predictions or financial advice. Use it to see the arguments and reactions a catalyst is likely to set off.
It is a Polymarket-style prediction market priced by a constant-product AMM. By default MiroShark writes a sharp, time-bound, resolvable question for you; you can also pin your own question, outcome labels, and opening probability.
Yes. The same run is a paid x402 API call: POST a prompt, pay $1 USDC on Base, Solana, or Monad, and poll for the report as markdown or JSON. No account or API key. The x402 guide in the docs has drop-in code.